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However, the 100-day and 200-day SMAs suggest a more cautious long-term outlook, reflecting underlying selling pressure that could limit further upside. From a technical standpoint, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers in the 60s, reflecting neutral conditions, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) supports ongoing buy momentum. The Ultimate Oscillator (7, 14, 28) also remains in the 60s, adding to the stable but cautiously positive outlook. Meanwhile, the Average Directional Index (14) in the 20s signals a lack of clear directional strength, aligning with the neutral reading of the Stochastic RSI Fast (3, 3, 14, 14), which rests in the 100s.
Most analysts expect the Australian dollar to strengthen against the NZD over the next few months because the RBA is continuing to lift rates, or has not ruled them out, whereas the RBNZ has called an end to its rate hikes. The resulting yield differential could lift the AUD/NZD rate to 1.12 from 1.09 now. “Longer term, other central banks including the RBA will need to call a halt to the rate hiking cycle, similar to where the RBNZ is now. This would help the NZD to appreciate against other currencies on narrowing yield outlooks,” said KCM’s Waterer. An immediate reason has been the New Zealand’s central bank unexpectedly signaling in May that no further policy tightening will be needed to tame inflation, after it lifted the cash rate to a steep 5.5%. One key factor determining the AUD/NZD rate over a longer term will be the inevitable end to central bank tightening globally.
Providing access to our stories should not be construed as investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any security or product, or to engage in or refrain from engaging in any transaction by Forbes Advisor Australia. In comparing various financial products and services, we are unable to compare every provider in the market so our rankings do not constitute a comprehensive review of a particular sector. While we do go to great lengths to ensure our ranking criteria matches the concerns of consumers, we cannot guarantee that every relevant feature of a financial product will be reviewed. However, Forbes Advisor Australia cannot guarantee the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of this website. Short-term moving averages, including the 10-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and 10-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), align with the broader buy signals, further reinforcing the pair’s current bullish stance.
However, he is quick to add that merely focusing on the rate hike narrative is insufficient.
Currently, the AUD/NZD appears fairly priced, with room for appreciation if economic conditions remain favorable. Investing $1,000 in AUD/NZD under different market scenarios can yield varying returns. In a Bullish Breakout scenario, a 5% price increase could result in an estimated value of ~$1,050. In a Sideways Range scenario, with a 0% change, the investment remains at ~$1,000. These kraken trading review scenarios highlight the importance of market conditions in determining investment outcomes.
The Australian dollar’s performance has largely been framed against a weakening global economy and central bank action in lifting rates. The Australian (AUD) and New Zealand dollars (NZD) are two of the most-traded currencies in the global forex markets. Gold price is reversing a part of the previous rebound from weekly lows early Wednesday as sellers attempt to regain control amid optimism over potential US trade deals with some of its major trading partners. Market participants have started to price in 25 basis points (bps) cut by RBA, its first cut in four years after being “late” to the global interest rate cut cycle (excluding Bank of Japan) to reduce its policy cash rate to 4.1%. As a seasoned financial analyst specializing in currencies and precious metals, he combines his multidisciplinary academic background to deliver a data-driven, contrarian perspective. As founder of Gold Predictors, he leads a team providing advanced market analytics, quantitative research, and refined precious metals trading strategies.
Despite this slowdown, strong export growth of 8.1% supports global trade optimism. Australia’s close export ties with China mean that any weakness in Chinese demand still affects the AUD. The Australian Dollar has been consolidating in wide ranges against the US Dollar over the past month. The chart below shows that the Westpac Consumer Confidence Index rose to 92.1 in May. This increase reversed the previous 6.0% drop in April and marked the third rise in 2025.
Business confidence has declined for three consecutive months coupled with a 22-month streak of contraction in manufacturing PMI data. The 4-hour chart for USD/JPY shows that the pair has broken above the descending broadening wedge pattern at $146.40 and initiated a move toward $151. The pair failed to break below the pivotal $140 level, reinforcing the current upward bias.
Meanwhile, the unemployment rate for Australia remained stable at 4% for its latest reading of December 2024, within the range of 4.1% to 3.7% recorded in 2024. China’s narrower trade surplus with the US, from okcoin review $27.6 billion in March to $20.46 billion in April, signals some success in rebalancing global trade. As a result, USD/JPY could benefit from stronger Dollar flows and reduced regional uncertainty.
Recently, the AUD/NZD has shown a slight upward trend, reflecting a recovery from previous lows. Factors such as economic data releases from Australia and New Zealand, including GDP growth and interest rate decisions, are influencing the pair’s value. Market participants are cautiously optimistic, with investor sentiment leaning towards a bullish outlook due to positive economic indicators. Opportunities for growth include potential interest rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of Australia, which could strengthen the AUD. However, risks such as geopolitical tensions and global economic uncertainties could pose challenges.
The markets read all that as “We’re done raising rates in the foreseeable future” and sold AUD across the board. It also didn’t help that traders turned a bit cautious today after taking risks in the last few days. Firstly, its price actions have started to trade above its 50-day moving average since 4 February.
In the short term, analysts expect the AUD/NZD rate to rise to 1.12, largely because the RBA’s hawkish-for-longer stance will boost the appeal of the Australian dollar. The New Zealand dollar has been among the weakest performing major currencies in 2023, with the persistent downtrend attributable to several key factors. The AUD has underperformed against most of its developed world peers as the Reserve Bank of Australia has lifted rates at an easier pace than other central banks, widening the differential in interest rates. The pair are correlated given the similar position of both countries as commodity exporters, and typically trade in a similar way against other global currencies. Both are also suited to “risk-on” trade, thanks to each country’s high exposure to commodities exports to China and a sensitivity to global growth. When covering investment and personal finance stories, we aim to inform our readers rather than recommend specific financial product or asset classes.
Whether you’re a beginner or an expert, find the right partner to navigate the dynamic Forex market. The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice. AUD is trading the lowest against USD and CHF and is seeing the least losses against NZD and GBP. Therefore, the 2-Year and 10-Year yield spreads between Australia and New Zealand sovereign bonds are likely to steepen further and, in turn, may ignite bitmex review upside pressure on the AUD/NZD cross rate.
